The forecasts for 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, see a general improvement in the sectors, with the exception of construction and metals.
In the “worst” scenario, in 2026 the resumption mom database of inflation and still high interest rates cause a new decline in consumption and investments . As a result, the turnover of both manufacturing and service companies is penalized. The construction sector records a sharp decline due to the postponement of the positive effect of the PNRR after 2026.
At a more disaggregated level, among the sectors with the best performances in the “baseline” scenario are renewable energy plants (+58.9% from 2024 to 2026), some areas linked to tourism and the recovery of travel, such as aircraft (+18.8%), rail transport (+10.6%). The sectors of infrastructure construction (+11.1%) and the railway industry (+24.2%) are also increasing , thanks to public investments supported by the PNRR funds.
The worst performances, however, will concern metallurgical machinery (-13.0%), due to the excess steel production capacity at a global level that will block new investments. Construction records the exhaustion of the tail of the superbonus (-12.5%), as well as the wholesale of construction products (-11.8%), doors and windows and other wooden products for construction (-10.2%) which had benefited from public incentives in the previous three years. In structural decline the publishing of newspapers and periodicals (-14.4%), due to the digital revolution and the refining of petroleum products (-8.1%) due to the decline in investments in fossil fuels.